Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 88,229
2 South Dakota 77,624
3 Iowa 62,607
4 Wisconsin 60,226
5 Nebraska 55,116
6 Utah 50,559
7 Idaho 48,694
8 Illinois 47,984
9 Montana 47,390
10 Tennessee 46,714
11 Mississippi 46,165
12 Arkansas 45,601
13 Alabama 45,579
14 Louisiana 45,154
15 Kansas 44,983
16 Wyoming 43,671
17 Missouri 43,371
18 Rhode Island 43,338
19 Minnesota 42,928
20 Florida 42,147
21 Nevada 40,941
22 Oklahoma 40,795
23 Indiana 40,231
24 Georgia 39,363
25 Arizona 39,093
26 Texas 38,824
27 South Carolina 38,737
28 Alaska 34,794
29 New Mexico 33,599
30 Kentucky 33,142
31 New Jersey 32,804
32 Colorado 30,948
33 North Carolina 30,726
34 Delaware 30,556
35 Michigan 30,293
36 New York 29,754
37 Maryland 28,483
38 Massachusetts 28,417
39 District of Columbia 27,580
40 Ohio 27,275
41 Connecticut 27,214
42 California 27,062
43 Virginia 24,466
44 Puerto Rico 24,274
45 Pennsylvania 22,454
46 West Virginia 20,242
47 Washington 18,714
48 Oregon 14,147
49 Hawaii 11,877
50 New Hampshire 11,582
51 Maine 7,081
52 Vermont 5,065

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Wyoming 1,601
2 Kansas 1,510
3 North Dakota 1,502
4 Nebraska 1,457
5 Rhode Island 1,378
6 South Dakota 1,239
7 Wisconsin 1,187
8 Iowa 1,185
9 Minnesota 1,091
10 Montana 1,089
11 New Mexico 993
12 Missouri 900
13 Michigan 889
14 Illinois 876
15 Utah 861
16 Idaho 834
17 Indiana 825
18 Alaska 804
19 Colorado 799
20 Connecticut 783
21 Tennessee 674
22 Oklahoma 614
23 Ohio 591
24 Kentucky 582
25 Nevada 580
26 Arkansas 505
27 West Virginia 486
28 Pennsylvania 479
29 Arizona 413
30 Texas 407
31 Louisiana 387
32 New Jersey 386
33 Alabama 385
34 Massachusetts 367
35 Mississippi 345
36 Delaware 325
37 Maryland 324
38 North Carolina 313
39 Washington 312
40 Florida 311
41 California 281
42 Virginia 268
43 Georgia 264
44 New Hampshire 264
45 South Carolina 255
46 New York 237
47 District of Columbia 230
48 Oregon 220
49 Puerto Rico 149
50 Vermont 145
51 Maine 142
52 Hawaii 46

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,875
2 New York 1,727
3 Massachusetts 1,509
4 Connecticut 1,341
5 Louisiana 1,330
6 Rhode Island 1,212
7 Mississippi 1,209
8 North Dakota 1,037
9 District of Columbia 942
10 Illinois 906
11 Arizona 874
12 Michigan 858
13 Georgia 831
14 Florida 825
15 South Carolina 812
16 Delaware 761
17 South Dakota 761
18 Indiana 755
19 Arkansas 753
20 Pennsylvania 745
21 Maryland 719
22 Texas 705
23 Alabama 682
24 Iowa 666
25 Nevada 632
26 New Mexico 615
27 Tennessee 586
28 Missouri 585
29 Minnesota 543
30 Montana 531
31 Wisconsin 504
32 Ohio 498
33 North Carolina 469
34 California 467
35 Colorado 463
36 Idaho 456
37 Kansas 455
38 Virginia 452
39 Nebraska 433
40 Kentucky 406
41 Oklahoma 396
42 New Hampshire 370
43 Washington 355
44 West Virginia 341
45 Puerto Rico 304
46 Wyoming 267
47 Utah 231
48 Oregon 187
49 Hawaii 156
50 Alaska 128
51 Maine 126
52 Vermont 96

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 North Dakota 21
2 Montana 13
3 Iowa 11
4 New Mexico 11
5 South Dakota 11
6 Arkansas 10
7 Wisconsin 10
8 Idaho 9
9 Rhode Island 9
10 Illinois 8
11 Indiana 8
12 Kansas 8
13 Nebraska 8
14 Tennessee 7
15 Alabama 6
16 Michigan 6
17 Minnesota 6
18 Mississippi 6
19 Missouri 6
20 Wyoming 6
21 Colorado 5
22 Kentucky 5
23 West Virginia 5
24 Connecticut 4
25 Pennsylvania 4
26 South Carolina 4
27 Texas 4
28 Florida 3
29 Georgia 3
30 Louisiana 3
31 Massachusetts 3
32 Nevada 3
33 New Jersey 3
34 North Carolina 3
35 Oklahoma 3
36 Puerto Rico 3
37 Arizona 2
38 Delaware 2
39 District of Columbia 2
40 Maryland 2
41 Ohio 2
42 Oregon 2
43 Utah 2
44 Virginia 2
45 Washington 2
46 California 1
47 Maine 1
48 New Hampshire 1
49 New York 1
50 Alaska 0
51 Hawaii 0
52 Vermont 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Norton Kansas 185,600 1 99
Lincoln Arkansas 182,509 2 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 180,119 3 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 177,409 4 99
Buffalo South Dakota 173,802 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 59,862 430 86
Richland South Carolina 46,178 920 70
York South Carolina 30,202 1904 39
Orange California 21,670 2432 22
Pierce Washington 16,708 2647 15

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 7,208 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 6,458 2 99
Hancock Georgia 5,321 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 5,238 4 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 5 99
Richland South Carolina 698 1109 64
Davidson Tennessee 563 1383 55
Orange California 481 1581 49
York South Carolina 438 1709 45
Pierce Washington 324 2064 34

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons